Rising tensions between Iran, Israel and the United States, along with statements about a possible large-scale military confrontation, have once again put security in the region in the spotlight.
If the war expands, its effects are expected not to be limited to the parties to the conflict and could also seriously affect neighbouring countries. Such a scenario raises important questions for Azerbaijan, which shares a border with Iran.
How could a possible war affect Azerbaijan’s national security, borders, economy and energy projects? Could the country face risks such as an influx of refugees, disruption to trade ties and increased military and political tensions in the region?
Speaking to Globalinfo.az, political commentator Ülviyyə Zülfiqar said military and political activity around Iran in recent days, preparations by the United States and Israel for possible new operations, and tough response statements from official Tehran have increased the likelihood of a broader confrontation in the region:
“This may involve not only reciprocal military strikes, but also a war scenario that could change the security architecture of the Middle East as a whole. However, intensified military preparations do not mean that war is inevitable. It cannot be ruled out that the United States intends to use increased military pressure to force Iran into concessions in negotiations. But the main danger would be that a move by one side triggers a harsher response from the other, causing the process to spiral out of control.
Ülviyyə Zülfiqar
The consequences of a possible large-scale war would, of course, not be limited to Iran, Israel and the United States. In particular, energy infrastructure and transport and logistics routes becoming targets could create serious instability on international markets. Further escalation around the Strait of Hormuz would directly affect oil prices, global trade and energy security. On the other hand, military-political alliances in the region and the interests of major powers increase the risk that the geography of the war could expand. Under such circumstances, one of the most serious threats is that the confrontation could turn into prolonged regional instability.
Another important aspect is how a possible war would affect the existing balance of power in the region. A weakening of Iran’s military and economic potential could create new geopolitical realities in the Middle East and further deepen competition among regional powers. On the other hand, the start of large-scale military operations would also affect political and social processes inside Iran. Particularly in a prolonged war scenario, the likelihood of growing economic hardship, a deepening humanitarian crisis and weakening internal stability is quite high. I believe the main issue at the current stage is to prevent the parties from moving from military rhetoric to a real confrontation. Such a war could have grave political, economic and humanitarian consequences.”
Turan Rzayev
Globalinfo.az
Read also
