Tension between Iran and Argentina has reached a peak. In Iran, the Argentine army has been declared a “terrorist organization.” Earlier, on 31 March 2026, Argentina added Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to its list of terrorist organizations, imposing financial sanctions and restrictions on its activities.
What is the main purpose of these steps? Could the confrontation between the two countries move onto a military plane and create the risk of a new war?
Political analyst Rashad Bayramov, speaking to Globalinfo.az, said the confrontation is part of broader geopolitical processes:
“This is not only about the political steps two states have taken against each other, but also about US and Israeli policy in the Middle East, Iran’s international positions and the sanctions mechanisms being applied. Tehran’s decision also has the character of a response to Argentina’s designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization. Several important factors lie behind Argentina’s decision.
First, Buenos Aires’ policy of strategic rapprochement with the US and Israel. President Javier Milei’s administration places particular importance on relations with Washington and Tel Aviv in foreign policy. The inclusion of the IRGC on the list of terrorist organizations can also be assessed as a continuation of this political course.
The second important factor is the historical and legal disputes between Argentina and Iran that have continued for many years. In 1994, 85 people were killed as a result of a terrorist attack on the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires. Argentina holds Hezbollah responsible for the attack and assesses Iran’s support for that organization as a security threat. Tehran rejects the accusations. This incident has for many years remained one of the main factors preventing the normalization of relations between the two countries.”
Rashad Bayramov
The political analyst said the main purpose of Iran’s retaliatory step is to exert political and diplomatic pressure on Argentina and at the same time to warn other states:
“Tehran is trying to demonstrate that the designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization is not merely a decision aimed at Iran’s internal security structures, but is also regarded as interference in the sovereignty and military institutions of the Iranian state. In this respect, the inclusion of the Argentine armed forces on a list of terrorist organizations is more a matter of political symbolism and a means of deterrence.
As for the probability of the confrontation moving onto a military plane, in the current situation this is not very realistic. First of all, there is a great geographical distance between the two countries. Argentina is located in South America and has no common border, or direct line of military contact, with Iran. Moreover, no clear strategic or economic motivation on the part of Buenos Aires to start a war with Tehran is visible. But there are certain security risks, and it would be wrong to rule that out.”
R. Bayramov noted that under present conditions the confrontation is more likely to develop on an indirect plane:
“This includes an intensification of intelligence and counterintelligence activities, further restriction of diplomatic relations, financial and economic pressure, as well as concerns about the security of diplomatic facilities abroad. In all cases, it would be more correct to assess the Iran-Argentina confrontation not as the beginning of a new interstate war, but as an indicator that global geopolitical polarization is spreading to Latin America as well. The main risk is not so much that the two countries will start a direct war, but that a mutual policy of hostility, combined with the interests of third parties and regional security processes, will create a wider crisis. Thus, a toughening of diplomatic rhetoric could produce serious political consequences, but that in itself does not mean military conflict is inevitable.”
Laman Imran
Globalinfo.az
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