“Axios” reports that the United States has proposed to Russia that a new security agreement be drafted in Europe. The document is envisaged to take Moscow’s demands into account and to include measures to reduce tensions. It is reported that the US President’s special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, and his son-in-law Jared Kushner will travel to Moscow on Thursday.
According to the report, Witkoff and Kushner will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the involvement of European countries in future peace talks.
What is meant by “Moscow’s demands”? Under what conditions could Russia agree to Europe’s participation in the process?
Political commentator Ali Zulfugaroglu told Globalinfo.az that the Republicans’ defeat in the midterm elections in the US, and the Democrats’ gaining the upper hand in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, also creates certain expectations regarding the presidential election due in 2 years:
“This situation, of course, does not serve Russia’s interests. After US President Donald Trump came to power, he gave open and covert support to Russia. He reduced military aid to Ukraine to a minimum and shifted the financing of the weapons provided onto the European Union. In addition, he intensified political pressure on Ukraine and created conditions for an increase in Russia’s military pressure. That is why the Republicans’ loss of positions also threatens Moscow’s interests. Because if the Democrats take the White House in 2 years as well (the current picture makes this scenario more likely), then the US will support Ukraine with full force, which could create serious problems for Russia.
Therefore, after the failure on the Iran issue, Trump is trying to achieve results in Ukraine and thereby turn domestic public opinion in his favor. From this point of view, it is expected that Washington will from now on give priority to intensive diplomacy on the Ukraine issue.
The main problem here is Russia’s conditions. Russia comes out as a supporter of a comprehensive approach to the issue and wants not a ceasefire but a one-time resolution of the problem. It justifies this with the argument that a ceasefire would create conditions for Ukraine to grow stronger. But Russia’s conditions are also unacceptable. Russia declares that Ukraine must unconditionally stop discussing the issue of NATO membership, that even alternative security guarantees must not be accepted, that Donbas must be completely vacated, that Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia must be recognized de jure by Kyiv as Russian territory, and that elections must be held in Ukraine.
Ukraine, for its part, rejects these conditions and demands that a ceasefire be achieved and that discussions begin thereafter.”
Ali Zulfugaroglu
The political commentator said that at present the only force giving serious support to Ukraine is the European Union (EU):
“The EU believes that if Ukraine makes concessions under military-political pressure, this will be a strategic defeat for the European Union as a whole. After that, Russia will also intensify its pressure on the Union. Recently, the European Union’s attempts to escape dependence on the US and to take its place as an independent geopolitical power in a multipolar world have worried Washington, so Russia’s pressure also suits the US. That is why the situation is quite complex. Progress on the Ukraine issue also depends on the form in which the contradictions between the US and the European Union are resolved.
Since Russia regards the EU as a party to the war, it does not want it to be part of the negotiation process. Statements by both President Vladimir Putin and other high-ranking Russian officials make it clear that if the European Union completely stops its support for Ukraine, it could be part of the negotiation process. Of course, consensus with the US must also be reached on this.
Therefore, mutual attacks will intensify further during the winter months, and Russia will try to resolve the issue on the front line. In that case, the European Union will continue its assistance so that Ukraine is not defeated before the presidential elections in the US.”
Turan Rzayev
Globalinfo.az
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