Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s instruction to the army to respond to any attack with return fire has sparked debate. This time the target is reportedly not only US bases in the Middle East. Warnings are being voiced that US military bases in Europe will also be struck.
Political commentator Bakir Hasanbeyli told Globalinfo.az that Khamenei’s instruction to his generals to “respond immediately and effectively without geographical restriction” is a deterrent and retaliatory strategic move against potential military attacks expected from the US and Israel:
“Tehran‘s decision to target European countries with this order has its own main goals and context. Iranian officials have accused European countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy and Portugal of opening their military bases to US fighter jets. This order and these threats are meant to prevent European countries from taking part in military operations against Iran and from making their territories available to the US. Under the new doctrine, Iran declares that if the US or Israel attacks it, the war will not be limited to the Middle East. In this way, US military facilities and strategic infrastructure in Europe are brought into the direct target zone, exerting pressure on the West.
By marking targets in Britain, France and Germany in red on a map of Europe, the Iranian press is trying to create fear of war among Western publics and governments and to distance them from Washington’s military plans. The purpose of these orders and threats is to neutralize Europe in a possible war, paralyze US activity in the region and prevent the emergence of a coordinated global front against Iran. The Iranian leadership is sending a message to the US and Israel that any serious attack on the country’s territory will not be confined to the Middle East. The main goal of Iranian officials is to strengthen their position in negotiations. With such sharp statements, Tehran is trying to gain a pressure lever for the easing of sanctions in behind-the-scenes talks with the US and mediators.”
Bakir Hasanbeyli
The political commentator said that Iran’s directly striking European cities or civilian infrastructure does not look realistic:
“However, Iranian media and officials note that the target is US and NATO military bases located in Europe. Iran’s long-range ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones have the range to reach military facilities in the southern and eastern parts of Europe. But what consequences could such a step have? A direct strike on any NATO base or member country on European soil would trigger the Alliance’s collective defence pact. That would mean the entire NATO bloc, led by the US, formally entering a war against Iran. The spillover of the conflict beyond the Middle East into Europe could raise regional tension to the level of a Third World War.
At present, although certain diplomatic channels remain open to Tehran within the European Union, if such an attack were to happen, Iran would be completely blockaded by Europe and face the harshest sanctions. This order by Mojtaba Khamenei is less a real military attack plan than strategic psychological pressure and a political bluff directed against the US and its allies. Official Tehran, knowing that an expansion of the war’s scale would be catastrophic both for itself and for the world, wants to raise the risks to the maximum and force its enemies to step back.”
Turan Rzayev
Globalinfo.az
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